The Future Implications of Warfare using Artificial Intelligence
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in recent years has profound implications for the future of warfare. AI systems have the potential to dramatically change the nature of conflict by enabling autonomous weapons, enhancing intelligence gathering and analysis, and accelerating decision-making on the battlefield. As P.W. Singer, strategist and senior fellow at New America, states, “AI will be present on battlefields of the future. Artificial intelligence (AI) in military technology is bringing changes to today’s battlefield, as well as introducing novel ways of warfare.”[1]
Autonomous Weapons Systems
One of the most consequential applications of AI in warfare is the development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS). AWS are weapons that can select and engage targets without meaningful human control.[2] These systems rely on AI algorithms to identify, track, and attack targets based on pre-defined parameters. While fully autonomous weapons have not yet been deployed, many countries are investing heavily in their research and development.
The potential advantages of AWS include faster reaction times, reduced risk to human soldiers, and the ability to operate in communications-denied environments. However, there are serious ethical and legal concerns about delegating life-and-death decisions to machines. As the International Committee of the Red Cross warns, “There are serious doubts about the capability of autonomous weapon systems to comply with international humanitarian law, in particular the rules of distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack.”[3]
The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, a coalition of non-governmental organizations, is advocating for a preemptive ban on the development, production, and use of fully autonomous weapons.[4] They argue that such weapons would be unable to meet international humanitarian law standards, would lower the threshold for armed conflict, and could lead to an AI arms race.
The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also called for a ban, stating “Autonomous machines with the power and discretion to select targets and take lives without human involvement are politically unacceptable, morally repugnant and should be prohibited by international law.”[5]
Intelligence Gathering and Analysis
AI is also poised to revolutionize intelligence gathering and analysis in military contexts. Machine learning algorithms can process vast amounts of data from multiple sources – such as satellite imagery, social media, intercepted communications – to identify patterns, make predictions, and uncover hidden insights. This can provide military decision-makers with an unprecedented level of situational awareness and enable them to anticipate and respond to emerging threats more quickly.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s Project Maven is an example of how AI is being used for intelligence analysis.[6] The project, which began in 2017, uses machine learning algorithms to analyze drone footage and identify objects of interest, such as vehicles and buildings. This reduces the burden on human analysts who previously had to sift through huge volumes of imagery manually.
However, the use of AI for intelligence gathering also raises privacy and civil liberties concerns, particularly when it involves the mass surveillance of civilian populations. The revelations of NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden highlighted the scale of global surveillance programs operated by the U.S. and its allies, many of which relied on AI-powered data mining.[7] As AI surveillance capabilities continue to expand, there is a risk of these technologies being abused by governments to stifle dissent and violate human rights.
Swarm Warfare: Strength in Numbers and Machine Speed
AI enables the concept of swarm warfare, where large numbers of unmanned vehicles – aerial, ground, or underwater – operate collaboratively and autonomously. Powered by AI algorithms, these swarms can overwhelm defenses, adapt quickly to changing battlefield conditions, and learn from mistakes in real-time.
“Swarm tactics will change the fundamental character of warfare. No longer will humans have the time or cognitive ability to keep up with the pace of battle,” predicts Elsa B. Kania, a leading expert on Chinese military innovation and AI, in her book “Harnessing the Harness: The U.S.-China Contest for AI Supremacy” .
Decision-Making at Machine Speed
The ability of AI to process massive quantities of data and make decisions faster than any human provides a decisive advantage on the modern battlefield. From threat assessment to logistics optimization to target selection, AI is becoming integral to military command and control.
However, concerns exist about overreliance on AI and the potential for catastrophic errors due to algorithmic bias or cyber-attacks. “AI must always remain a tool, not the master. The ultimate responsibility for critical decisions still lies with human commanders,” cautions Dr. Ulrike Franke, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, in her article “The Ethics of AI in War”
Acceleration of Conflict
AI systems have the potential to dramatically accelerate the pace of warfare by enabling faster decision-making and autonomous action. With AI-powered intelligence analysis, target identification, and weapons deployment, the speed of conflict could increase beyond human ability to keep pace. As Gen. John R. Allen, former commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, warns “AI will speed the pace of battle, accelerating combat to a point where human decision-makers may struggle to keep up.”[8]
This acceleration of conflict poses risks of unintended escalation and loss of human control over warfare. If AI systems are authorized to make critical decisions autonomously, without human oversight, it could lead to unpredictable and potentially catastrophic outcomes. As an open letter signed by thousands of AI researchers states, “Starting a military AI arms race is a bad idea, and should be prevented by a ban on offensive autonomous weapons beyond meaningful human control.”[9]
Challenges of AI Arms Control
Preventing an unconstrained AI arms race will require international cooperation and arms control agreements. However, AI poses unique challenges for arms control because the technology is dual-use, meaning it has both civilian and military applications. Many AI research breakthroughs emerge from the private sector and academic institutions, rather than military labs.
Furthermore, AI development is more software-driven than traditional weapons technologies, making it harder to monitor and verify compliance with arms control agreements. As Greg Allen, chief of strategy and communications at the Department of Defense’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, notes “Traditional arms control agreements are all about very observable, countable, inspectable units like silos and strategic bombers. In a world where software dominates, it’s a very different kind of arms control challenge.”[10]
Despite these challenges, there are growing calls for international governance frameworks to ensure the responsible development and use of military AI. The Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, established by the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, has been discussing possible restrictions on AWS.[11] Some proposals include requiring meaningful human control over the use of force, and prohibiting AWS that cannot be reliably controlled or that would violate international law.
Artificial intelligence has immense potential to transform the nature of warfare in the coming decades. From autonomous weapons to enhanced intelligence analysis and decision-making, AI systems could make conflicts faster, more complex, and harder for humans to control. At the same time, the development of military AI applications raises serious ethical, legal, and security concerns.
Preparing for the Future
Addressing the implications of AI in warfare requires a multifaceted approach, including international cooperation, regulatory frameworks, and ethical guidelines. Nations must collaborate to establish norms and agreements that ensure the responsible use of AI technologies in military operations.
International Cooperation and Diplomacy
Strengthening international diplomacy and cooperation is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by AI in warfare. This includes dialogue and agreements on the development, deployment, and use of AI technologies in a manner that promotes global security and stability.
Innovation and Adaptation
Military organizations must adapt to the evolving landscape of warfare, investing in research and development to harness the potential of AI technologies while mitigating their risks. This includes training and equipping personnel to operate alongside AI systems effectively.
Ethical Frameworks and Legal Regulations
The development of ethical frameworks and legal regulations governing the use of AI in warfare is essential. These guidelines should ensure the accountability and transparency of AI systems, aligning their use with international humanitarian law and ethical principles.
As AI continues to advance, it is critical that the international community works together to establish norms and governance frameworks for its responsible use in warfare. This could involve arms control agreements to limit the development and deployment of autonomous weapons, as well as confidence-building measures to prevent unintended escalation and ensure human control over the use of force. Failing to constrain military AI risks unleashing an AI arms race with potentially catastrophic consequences for humanity.
Only by proactively shaping the trajectory of AI in warfare can we ensure that the technology is developed and used in ways that are ethical, legal, and consistent with international humanitarian principles. The stakes could not be higher – the future of warfare, and perhaps of our species, hangs in the balance.
Sources:
[1] P.W. Singer, https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/29/22597673/artificial-intelligence-ai-warfare-military-future-cybersecurity-cyberwar
[2] International Committee of the Red Cross, https://www.icrc.org/en/document/autonomous-weapons-states-must-agree-limits
[3] International Committee of the Red Cross, https://www.icrc.org/en/document/autonomous-weapon-systems-under-international-humanitarian-law
[4] Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/learn/
[5] United Nations Secretary-General, https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2018-11-05/secretary-generals-remarks-web-summit
[6] U.S. Department of Defense, https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/2013824/project-maven-to-deploy-computer-algorithms-to-war-zone-intelligence-challenges/
[7] The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/05/nsa-gchq-encryption-codes-security
[8] Gen. John R. Allen, https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/6/5/18653633/ai-military-artificial-intelligence-weapons-warfare
[9] Future of Life Institute, https://futureoflife.org/autonomous-weapons-open-letter-2021/
[10] Greg Allen, https://www.vox.com/2019/11/11/20955920/ai-autonomous-weapons-treaties-regulation-military-us-china-russia
[11] United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, https://www.un.org/disarmament/the-convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons/background-on-laws-in-the-ccw/
